Posted on Friday, 07.29.11
Hurricane season
Waves signal tropics heating up
With four named storms, hurricane season 2011 is already running above average and the hottest months are still ahead.
By CURTIS MORGAN
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com
Two months, four named storms and another far-away tropical wave with apparent aspirations.
Forecasters had predicted yet another busy hurricane season and, with a third of it in the books, they’ve been on the mark so far. But it’s over the next few months that the tropics historically crank up the storm machine.
“Things are definitely looking much more active,’’ said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. “We’re getting into that time of year, particularly with the tropical waves rolling off the African coast.’’
Tropical Storm Don, expected to bring three to five inches of rain to South Texas and Northeast Mexico in the next few days, formed from one of those waves. Over the next week, forecasters will be closely monitoring a second wave still deep in the Atlantic Ocean some 1,100 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. On Friday, the center was giving it a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next few days but also noted that the low-pressure disturbance was growing better organized and conditions were favorable for development.
It’s way too early to say whether the wave will whip up into a storm or hurricane, let alone where it might go, said Feltgen, but “right now, on satellite imagery, it’s vey impressive.’’
Before the season began, most long-range forecasts called for another above-average year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center predicted 12 to 18 named storms, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six becoming powerful major hurricanes of Category 3 or above.
There was one wild card in the prognostications, however. A La Niña global weather pattern had shifted to a neutral phase. Marked by cooling of Pacific Ocean waters near the equator, La Niña tends to help more hurricanes form by reducing the wind shear that can weaken or shred developing systems. It helped pump 2010 into the third-busiest storm season on record with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. An average season produces 11 named storms and six hurricanes.
None of the hurricanes made landfall on the mainland United States – making 2010 a record-tying fifth straight year in which the mainland has escaped a strike from a major hurricane. But three storms did cause heavy damage and kill 250 people in the Caribbean and Central America.
The four named storms so far through June and July are double the number that forms by this time during an average year. The fourth named storm, according to NOAA records, typically doesn’t show up until Aug. 23.
In an average year, the first hurricane forms around Aug 10. The season historically peaks around mid-September. The six-month hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Forecasters had predicted yet another busy hurricane season and, with a third of it in the books, they’ve been on the mark so far. But it’s over the next few months that the tropics historically crank up the storm machine.
“Things are definitely looking much more active,’’ said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. “We’re getting into that time of year, particularly with the tropical waves rolling off the African coast.’’
Tropical Storm Don, expected to bring three to five inches of rain to South Texas and Northeast Mexico in the next few days, formed from one of those waves. Over the next week, forecasters will be closely monitoring a second wave still deep in the Atlantic Ocean some 1,100 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. On Friday, the center was giving it a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next few days but also noted that the low-pressure disturbance was growing better organized and conditions were favorable for development.
It’s way too early to say whether the wave will whip up into a storm or hurricane, let alone where it might go, said Feltgen, but “right now, on satellite imagery, it’s vey impressive.’’
Before the season began, most long-range forecasts called for another above-average year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center predicted 12 to 18 named storms, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six becoming powerful major hurricanes of Category 3 or above.
There was one wild card in the prognostications, however. A La Niña global weather pattern had shifted to a neutral phase. Marked by cooling of Pacific Ocean waters near the equator, La Niña tends to help more hurricanes form by reducing the wind shear that can weaken or shred developing systems. It helped pump 2010 into the third-busiest storm season on record with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. An average season produces 11 named storms and six hurricanes.
None of the hurricanes made landfall on the mainland United States – making 2010 a record-tying fifth straight year in which the mainland has escaped a strike from a major hurricane. But three storms did cause heavy damage and kill 250 people in the Caribbean and Central America.
The four named storms so far through June and July are double the number that forms by this time during an average year. The fourth named storm, according to NOAA records, typically doesn’t show up until Aug. 23.
In an average year, the first hurricane forms around Aug 10. The season historically peaks around mid-September. The six-month hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/07/29/2337161/waves-signal-tropics-heating-up.html#ixzz1TXoESsr8
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